After a historic year 2025 that saw the price of gold rise over 60% and break more than 50 records, investors are now turning their attention to whether the precious metal can maintain its upward trajectory in 2026.
Despite leading the “assets” in year-to-date performance, putting it on track for its best year since 1979, experts think gold could still have room to climb next year.
But others warn that risks remain, Euronews writes, reports Telegraph.
And for this reason, the article in question emphasizes, unlike previous years when single events dominated the trajectory of gold, this year saw multiple factors at play.
Continued central bank purchases, ongoing geopolitical frictions, increased trade uncertainty, low interest rates and a weakening US dollar all combined to drive demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset.
According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, geopolitical tensions contributed roughly 12 percentage points to performance since the beginning of the year, while dollar weakness and slightly lower interest rates added another 10 points.
Investor momentum and positioning accounted for nine points, with economic expansion contributing another 10.
Central banks also continued to buy aggressively, keeping official sector demand well above pre-pandemic rates.
Forecasts from the World Gold Council
Looking ahead, the Council expects many of the forces that drove gold's extraordinary growth in 2025 to remain relevant in 2026.
However, the starting point is now fundamentally different.
Unlike early 2025, gold prices have now appreciated to what the WGC describes as “macro consensus.”
These are expectations for stable global growth, moderate interest rate cuts in the US, and a generally stable dollar.
In this environment, the Council notes that gold appears to be fairly valued.
Real interest rates are no longer falling significantly, opportunity costs are neutral, and the strong positive momentum seen in 2025 has begun to fade.
In addition, investors' risk "appetite" remains balanced, rather than leaning decisively towards caution or euphoria.
As a result, in its base case scenario, the WGC sees gold trading within a narrow range in 2026, with performance limited to between -5% and +5%.
But the outlook is far from set, as three alternative scenarios could shape a different path.
Thus, in a “shallow economic slide” – characterized by softer economic growth and additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve – gold could rise by 5% to 15% as investors shift to safe-haven assets, extending gains through 2025.
Meanwhile, in a deeper economic downturn, or “wicked loop,” gold could rise by 15% to 30%, driven by more aggressive monetary easing, falling Treasury yields and strong safe-haven flows.
Meanwhile, if the Trump administration's policies succeed in reviving growth, a return to reflation would likely push yields and the dollar higher, reducing gold's attractiveness.
Under this bearish scenario, gold could fall by 5% to 20%, especially if investor positioning reverses and central bank demand weakens.
Wall Street predictions
Despite a more cautious outlook from the WGC, major investment banks continue to predict further growth for gold in 2026.
JP Morgan Private Bank predicts that prices could reach between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce (€4,470–€4,560/ounce), citing strong and sustained demand as a key factor.
Goldman Sachs predicts gold will be around $4,900 per ounce (€4,210/ounce) by the end of next year, supported by continued central bank purchases.
While Deutsche Bank offers a wide range of $3,950 to $4,950 (€3,400–€4,260/ounce), with a base case near $4,450, Morgan Stanley predicts prices to be closer to $4,500 (€3,870/ounce), although it warns of short-term volatility.
Supporting this optimism is the continued accumulation of gold by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, as well as the view that many institutional investors remain “under-exposed” to the metal.
Also, the potential for lower real yields, coupled with global macro risks, continues to make gold attractive as a portfolio hedge.
However, risks may limit further gains.
A stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.S. or a rebound in inflation could force the Federal Reserve to delay or cancel interest rate cuts, pushing up real yields and the dollar, two classic headwinds for gold.
A constructive way forward
While a repeat of the extraordinary 60% surge of 2025 seems unlikely, gold enters 2026 on strong footing.
However, fundamental elements such as macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank diversification, and gold's role as a hedge against volatility remain intact.
And in a world increasingly defined by unpredictability, gold continues to offer investors not only returns but also stability.
So, the metal may no longer be in the early stages of a bull run, but “its role as a strategic anchor in uncertain times is far from diminished.” /Telegrafi/
Source of information @Telegrafi: Read more at:the world today www.botasot.al
