Climate change, rising sea levels and flooding are expected to have a major impact on Asia, where millions of people live on low-lying land near the ocean.
A new report from Greenpeace East Asia looks at the risks in seven regional cities, concluding that in these metropolises alone, more than 15 million people could be affected by rising sea levels and flooding by 2030.
While the problems surrounding the drowning of the Indonesian capital Jakarta have been well known, the report actually puts Bangkok at the top of the most affected cities. Greenpeace expects that more than ten million people would be at risk in the Thai capital if a ten-year flood were to occur at sea level 2030, putting 96 percent of the city's GDP at risk – more than $500 billion of calculated in purchasing power parity.
Economic risk is also highest in the Philippine capital Manila, where 87 percent of GDP ($39.2 billion) and about 1.5 million people would be at risk in 2030 during such an event, which is defined as a flood that has a 1:10 chance of occurring in any given year in the respective country.
As in Jakarta, over-extraction of the City of Manila's groundwater is causing it to sink by 10 cm a year, according to numbers cited by Greenpeace. Jakarta's maximum subsidence is set at 25cm per year by the report – a figure that has earned it the title of the world's fastest sinking city. However, the problems are concentrated on the north coast of Jakarta. In the event of a ten-year flood in 2030, only 17 percent of the city could be flooded, according to the report, compared to the large basins of Bangkok and Manila.
Jakarta's problems are expected to put 1.8 million at risk, causing a potential GDP loss of 18 percent ($68.2 billion). However, the Indonesian government has repeatedly expressed its desire to move the country's capital to a purpose-built site in the East Kalimantan region on the island of Borneo. While officials have cited a desire to better balance the country's economic growth as a reason, observers believe environmental concerns also play a role.
Of the East Asian cities in the report, Taipei and Tokyo are expected to be the most at risk. 24 percent of Taipei's GDP could be lost less than ten years down the line, as many sites along the Tamsui River would be at serious risk of flooding in the city. Up to 830,000 could be affected in densely populated Tokyo, although only 4 percent of the city would be flooded under the given scenario.
The report did not take into account the effect of levees or sea walls that some cities have built or may build by 2030, which could minimize the risk of flooding. Greenpeace said structures existed or were under construction in Tokyo and Jakarta, but there was insufficient data to include them in the report's modeling. The rise in sea levels by 2030 was calculated to be consistent with the planet warming by 3-4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
(BalkanWeb)
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