The assassination of the expected Republican candidate for president of the United States, Donald Trump, will cause political consequences in the country.
This is what Robert Spitzer, professor of political science at SUNY Cortland in the USA, said in an interview given to Radio Free Europe, as he spoke about the impact that the assassination of Trump will have on the race for the November 5 presidential election.
Spitzer said Trump is expected to rise in the polls, due to the support received after the July 13 shooting, but added that in a few weeks support for him and for the current president, Joe Biden, is expected to fall to previous levels.
Trump was speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania when he was shot in the right ear. The suspected attacker was killed by authorities, while Trump escaped with minor injuries. The American president, Joe Biden, strongly condemned the violence.
In this interview, Spitzer also talks about what a candidacy for the White House of the current vice president, Kamala Harris, would look like if Biden were to withdraw from the presidential race.
Radio Free Europe: Professor Spitzer how will the event of July 13 affect the presidential race in the USA?
Robert Spitzer: This has political consequences. As a reminder, when Ronald Reagan was assassinated in 1981, and it was a very serious assassination, he was shot in the chest and almost died. In fact, it took him several months to recover. But when Reagan was shot, he was president at the time. His advisers gathered within 24 hours of that event to decide how best to take advantage of that event politically because there was an explosion of support for Reagan. This had an important political consequence for him, for his presidency, and helped him to pass a big tax cut in the summer of 1982, and that decision passed through Congress.
The circumstances today are different. Donald Trump is not the current president of the USA. But there is certainly an immediate outpouring of support. Fortunately, he was not seriously injured by the shooting. Although, of course, no gunshots are a good thing.
You will see him rise in the polls in the next couple of weeks, there will be support for him. However, I think in the context of this race, and because he was not seriously injured, I think the poll numbers for him will return to the levels they were before yesterday's [July 13] assassination.
Although I would add one more thing that, coincidentally, starting tomorrow, July 15th, the Republican National Convention will convene, which will last four days, and presidential candidates generally get a boost in the polls because of the convention. the party. So, it is expected that the body's candidacy will have an increase in support after it is dominated. This support may be slightly higher due to the assassination. But I think that within a few weeks, the results, the position of Trump and President Biden will reach where it was in the last month or two months ago.
Radio Free Europe: How do you think they might try to exploit the situation or if they will try to use this event to show how much energy Trump has compared to Biden?
Robert Spitzer: No doubt anyone who has watched television has seen enough footage because all the cameras were there as he had just started talking to the crowd. He had not started his official speech, but he was talking to people, which is his way. There are many photographs and recordings of what happened. His supporters and his people will use those pictures and footage of him holding up his fist after being shot, to show his strength and determination as a leader, something like that.
And that wouldn't be a surprise. Symbols and images will be used by his people to promote his candidacy. Even when he was indicted in federal court a few months ago, he was given his arrest photo, which was immediately put on t-shirts and coffee mugs. This is a much more heroic moment for him and his supporters will undoubtedly use it to bolster his candidacy.
Now, will this have any effect on the November result? I don't believe there will be. But now it gives him and his campaign some "rocket fuel". And this is certainly useful for him.
Radio Free Europe: As for the rhetoric of the campaign, do you expect it to change in both parties?
Robert Spitzer: It's kind of a double-edged sword in a way, meaning, of course, there's support for Trump. It's traditionally a bipartisan moment, because both sides hate violence, in general, and they don't want to encourage it and they want to condemn violence. But there's another part of it, which is that some in Trump's base treat him the other way. For example, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who was shortlisted to be Trump's running mate and Trump has not yet made up his mind, as far as we know, Vance released a statement last night blaming all this to President Biden.
And that, to me, is overkill, precisely because instead of using it as a healing, positive, bipartisan moment, we're seeing rhetoric about using violence or blaming the other side for this kind of action.
Radio Free Europe: One of Biden's policies has been gun control. Can the Democrats use this to their advantage?
Robert Spitzer: After this event happened and I saw it on TV, right after it happened, I was immediately shocked by some facts. One was that this was clearly a long gun, not a pistol, and had been fired from a distance and very quickly, meaning it was a semi-automatic weapon.
I had a feeling it might be a semi-automatic rifle type weapon, and some sort of assault rifle. And indeed that is what the police have said so far. And I think that will accelerate calls to revisit the issue of limiting assault weapons.
About 10 or 12 states here in the United States have such restrictions in their laws. Pennsylvania is not among them, where the shooting took place. Also, the question of how many bullets were fired and how quickly before the attacker was shot and killed. Undoubtedly, the Secret Service or some police authority hit the attacker almost immediately and shot him dead, meaning he shot very quickly and very accurately. But here again, we have a question mark as to how a 20-year-old could legally possess such a weapon in the first place. In some states, you have to be 21 to buy a semi-automatic handgun, but not in Pennsylvania. So the ease of access to these types of weapons and the fact that shooters like to use semi-automatic weapons to cause violence, especially mass violence, will be issues that will be much debated in the coming days and weeks from the camp of Biden.
Radio Free Europe: Regarding the campaign, do you expect any changes? Will there be any short-term slowdown in the campaign once the Secret Service figures out what to do? Or will this just be a minor setback?
Robert Spitzer: I think Trump will want to get back on the campaign trail, in part to demonstrate that he's okay and to show that this horrible event hasn't stopped him. And this will certainly put even greater pressure on security officials.
He is protected by the Federal Secret Service, but their protection was limited to the area where the rally was held. Apparently, other areas outside the rally site were under the jurisdiction of Pennsylvania state and local police. They may have missed an important point that should have been covered. We will learn much more about this in the coming days. This issue will place an even greater emphasis on security and the need for security for both presidential candidates. So, they made everyone even more security conscious.
And this means that in any kind of event there will definitely be increased security and it will also be an incentive to hold future rallies indoors rather than outdoors, because if this rally had been held indoors closed, of course everyone could have been checked before entering.
Radio Free Europe: Do these shootings highlight divisions in the US and raise questions about the state of democracy?
Robert Spitzer: I think it highlights the difference between the political parties on the issue of guns. First of all, Democrats have generally supported stronger gun control laws. And the Republican Party has increasingly, in recent years, opposed every measure, although there have been exceptions. So I think this will bring that issue back to the fore.
In addition, it is hoped that the short-term answer will be reconciliation and peace, but already we are seeing rhetoric going in the opposite direction.
For some fringe elements in the Republican coalition, there is a desire to arm more and talk more about violence and the use of violence. We have already heard a statement from an extremist group called “Proud Boys” when talking about guns and violence, and the need to be prepared for violence. This rhetoric is extremely corrosive to a democratic system, because the essence of a democratic society is that decisions and the choice of leaders are made through peaceful means. This is what the founders of the state wanted. And so, this brings the debate back into the public sphere.
Radio Free Europe: Let's change the topic a little. We have the Republican National Assembly this week, and months later, that of the Democratic Party. There are many calls for Biden to withdraw from the race. Would you expect him to leave shortly before the Assembly? And if the vice president, Kamala Harris, is chosen as the presidential candidate, what do you think her strengths and weaknesses are?
Robert Spitzer: I think it's very clear that President Biden has stated that he is in the race and wants to stay in the race, believing that he can successfully run the campaign. He has weathered some challenges, including a stutter of sorts [during the presidential debate], but it seems the Democratic Party is unwilling to challenge him directly, accepting that he is the party's nominee.
If he decides to step down, then Democrats will no doubt step in to fill the void, and Vice President Kamala Harris would be the expected successor. She has shown intelligence and ability, is younger, and is African-American in terms of ancestry.
She could be running a nationwide campaign, though we haven't seen her in that role yet. She has run for president before and her campaign didn't get very far, but she remains a strong candidate. Polls show her outperforming Biden in matchups against Trump. But the actual effects of the campaign are still unknown and she would be an untested candidate. However, she must be mentally prepared for the prospect of taking over if something were to happen to President Biden.
Radio Free Europe: What would be the themes that would help Harris rise to the top and defeat Trump? Would it be the abortion issue? Or voting rights, health care?
Robert Spitzer: She would be willing to talk about issues like health care, abortion rights, maybe gun violence and gun policy. She has worked to bolster her foreign policy credentials and has traveled extensively abroad. She is well positioned to discuss and promote the issues that the Democratic Party supports and that will be summarized in the Democratic Party platform when they gather for their convention in August. After the convention, the nominees usually get a little boost, and then we'll see where the race stands until November.REL
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